Saving for retirement: lessons from oil dependency

By Laura Alspaugh CFA | March 8th, 2008

Over thirty years ago, I had a European history teacher who was loved and respected. She taught us to think about history, not just recount it.  Despite her many years living in the U.S., she spoke with a heavy German accent, making her even more formidable. While her classes have faded from my memory, I recall her prediction of the next major world conflict. She told us that the next war would be driven by our dependency on oil. It sounded quite ominous.

Looking back, it was a logical prediction given the fact that we were experiencing our first energy crisis. Oil prices spiked, gas lines grew long and the rationing of fuel was happening right before our eyes. Unlike our parents who lived through the Great Depression, we baby boomers asked, “These things aren’t supposed to happen here in the U.S., are they?”

But lessons are often taught more than once because we don’t “get it” the first time. While 1973-1975 was a painful time, we put it aside as simply a lesson about the evils of wage and price controls. It was obvious that an oil shock could cripple us and yet we failed to face that simple truth.  Our dependence on oil continued without any meaningful commitment to the development of alternative energy sources.

Due to converging problems, too many and too complex to enumerate here, we now face a second lesson. We may have a chance to change our patterns of behavior.  Oil remains abundant in Russia and the Middle East. We can buy it. But the game is different now. The number of consumers has increased dramatically as the developing giants, China and India, compete for the same nonrenewable energy source.

What does this have to do with retirement savings? Intellectually, the average person knows that a lack of savings today will impact the quality of life at retirement. Sadly, that average Joe fails to act in the face of the obvious.  Just like the crisis in 1973, the U.S. government and private industry failed to initiate a meaningul plan for the development of alternative energy sources It’s about foresight and action. It’s about the ability to look ahead and to take actions today that can create a better future.

Spending tomorrow’s money today will bite us when tomorrow’s money is no longer there. We have begun to see that tomorrow’s money (i.e. home equity) is drying up. As for oil, we still have access, but the end of tomorrow’s oil may now be within sight. The world needs viable alternatives to fossil fuels. Consumers need to save more.  The time for change is today, not tomorrow.

Get foresight. Get saving today.

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